WASHINGTON (DTN) -- When leaders from USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service this past week briefed state agricultural directors about highly pathogenic avian influenza, everyone agreed it was unprecedented to see a virus circulate through the wild population for more than two years.
"We're entering year four. So, it's been a long time here and a big challenge for all of us," said Michael Watson, administrator of APHIS.
"We can all agree the fall migration -- which was a little delayed from what we expected in previous years -- really stunk," said Rosemary Sifford, USDA's chief veterinarian. "It was a tough one. It looks like we are on the back side of it now. We are seeing a decrease in the number of cases."
USDA had already spent $1.8 billion to combat highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) before the department announced this week a $1 billion new plan focused on expanding a biosecurity pilot program, increasing indemnities to producers and providing cost share to pay for biosecurity upgrades on farms, bringing in more egg imports, and looking at the possibility of a vaccine for at least parts of the poultry industry.
For now, the new plan maintains the long-standing practice of depopulating infected flocks as quickly as possible despite White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt criticizing the Biden administration for "mass killing more than 100 million chickens."
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins came into her job under pressure from the soaring price of eggs that have reached a national average of $4.95 a dozen. In announcing her strategy this week, she noted, "There is no silver bullet to eliminate the flu."
With Republicans now in charge, Democratic lawmakers have ramped up their own criticisms over egg prices and also have called on the Federal Trade Commission to look into the profits of companies such as Cal-Maine and retailers.
EGG INDUSTRY SEES DEVASTATING LOSSES
Just since the start of 2025, HPAI has led USDA to depopulate 28.1 million egg-laying hens, mainly due to outbreaks in Ohio and Indiana. Going back to October, the egg industry has lost 52 million birds.
Another 7.7 million broilers and turkeys have been infected in 2025.
In his speech Thursday at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer noted the number of layer hens nationally now stands at 291 million. Normally, the number of layers would be closer to 320-325 million.
Oscar Garrison, senior vice president of regulatory affairs for United Egg Producers, also spoke about avian influenza during a panel discussion at the Outlook Forum. "This has been devastating for the poultry industry -- nothing less than devastating."
Garrison noted last summer the poultry industry wrote USDA officials asking for more aggressive measures to reduce the risks of further outbreaks. Garrison credited the Trump administration for acting aggressively to curb higher egg prices.
"A lot of -- a lot of -- money is going into it," Garrison said. "We're very excited that the administration is taking this seriously and is moving this forward and we're very pleased with what they put out so far. The devil's always in the details so we're still trying to figure out exactly what some of these things mean."
Unlike broilers, it takes a lot longer time to rebuild a hen-laying operation even after the time it takes to depopulate, clean a farm and get certified by USDA to begin repopulation. It takes 18 to 24 weeks for a chick to mature to the point it lays eggs. Chicks also are generally bought a year to 18 months out. Right now, the supply of baby chicks to restock farms is backing up, Garrison said.
"It is actually taking us longer to repopulate now than it did in 2023 because we had the resources then, but this situation has been nonstop really since last April," he said.
Those poultry industry losses this fall and winter were a surprise. The flock losses in December and January were the second-highest peak season for HPAI cases in poultry since the spring 2022 bird migratory season.
SOMETHING DIFFERENT ABOUT THIS VIRUS
It's unclear what the spring migration may look like as well, APHIS' Sifford told state agricultural directors.
"It's hard to predict what the next migratory season will bring. So, I think that's one of the key things that we keep spending time thinking about. Something's different with this virus, right?" Sifford told state agricultural directors on Tuesday. "In the past, you might see one or two migratory seasons where the birds brought the virus back to us, and then it was gone. And this year we are heading into year four."
The virus hit Europe a year earlier than the U.S., Using Europe as a guide, Sifford said, "We're probably going to see it for a few more seasons."
The adaptations of the H5N1 virus also has surprised researchers. Some of the genes, particularly a nuclear protein gene in the virus, helped change transmission efficiency and allows the virus to replicate in an animal at a higher level, and then transmit faster. There is evidence that somewhere along the way the virus had acquired a new nuclear protein.
"And our hypothesis is that it may have changed transmission efficiency ...," said Tavis Anderson, a mathematician at the National Animal Disease Center in Ames, Iowa.
Part of the challenge is there is always low pathogenic avian influenza in the wild population. The highly pathogenic strain is mixing with the low-path strains and creating new combinations of genes that make it easier for the virus to spread.
"It's just hit a sweet spot in a combination of genes that allows it to replicate fast and transmit well," said Anderson, who also spoke at the Outlook conference. "It seems like when it's moving from one species to another, that's like another opportunity for like a leap forward evolutionarily for the virus."
BIOSECURITY HAS TIGHTENED
This HPAI outbreak also is moving differently from the bird flu outbreak that hit a decade ago. At that time, a lot of the infections came from "lateral" transmissions, which means people moving from barn to barn, farm to farm. That's not happening now. Poultry producers have already aggressively implemented protocols over the past decade, but the virus is still defeating them.
"In this outbreak, we don't see lateral movement between barns," Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig said. "We've got independent wild bird introduction. From that standpoint, the biosecurity and speed that has been exercised has paid dividends. But I will say as we are entering our fourth year collectively of doing this, we've got to put all options on the table."
When outbreaks occur, Garrison said the industry generally has calls with producers to learn about how their operations are hit. Typically, the birds that become infected first in located in areas right near ventilation inlets. "Where you see it is in the house, top level right next to an inlet, 90% of the time. So anecdotally we think that is pretty significant," he said.
STATE AG DIRECTORS SEE HOPE IN VACCINES
Since Christmas, Ohio has depopulated 10 million birds while neighboring Indiana has had 9 million birds depopulated. Brian Baldridge, director of the Ohio Department of Agriculture, said the egg industry in his state wants to see more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine and add that to the potential HPAI response. He and other state directors advocated for the National Association of State Directors of Agriculture to support that effort.
"We cannot continue down the same path today and hope for a different outcome tomorrow," Baldridge said.
The development of vaccines for poultry, dairy and other livestock could include an "opt-out" for industries sensitive to trade such as the broiler industry.
Iowa is another state that has seen high losses in egg-laying operations over the past three years. Naig agreed that more research is needed on a viable vaccine option.
"We have been at this now for three years. We've been dealing with it spring and fall ever since," Naig said. "I'm going to broadly say we should be looking at every option available, including vaccination. That's not something that had been talked about real seriously before. I appreciate that this administration is clearly thinking about it. Let's see if it can be an option."
Garrison said any poultry industry right now is still not ready for vaccination, but he noted pharmaceutical companies are starting to look more aggressively at the situation.
"We know this is controversial. We know members of the other feathered groups are worried about what this would do to trade," Garrison said.
But the domestic losses have reached an inflection point where nearly everyone agrees vaccines could avoid continued mass depopulations.
The animal health company Zoetis announced on Feb. 14 that the company was granted a conditional license for its avian influenza vaccine for chickens. The company said the "license was granted on the demonstration of safety, purity, and reasonable expectation of efficacy based on serology data." Zoetis had developed an HPAI vaccine to protect California condors in 2023 and worked to protect endangered birds in New Zealand last year.
One of the problems with a vaccination strategy, however, is that countries immediately ban imports. That's a much bigger issue for the broiler and turkey industries than eggs. State agriculture secretaries suggested regions or industries could consider opting out of vaccinations to protect their export markets if countries resist allowing meat imports from vaccinated birds.
Thom Petersen, the agricultural commissioner of Minnesota, also noted most of the world is dealing with avian influenza in some form. He thinks countries will be more supportive of a vaccine than they were just a few years ago.
"Poultry is a low-cost protein and other countries are going to start looking at vaccines to keep that protein available," Petersen said.
Another problem, however, is getting a vaccine that will be effective with a large share of the population or flocks, Petersen said. "What the veterinarians tell me is it could be tough to have an effective vaccine that may be 30% to 70% effective because the virus changes so much," Petersen said. "That's one thing when we start talking about putting together a stockpile is how effective is that vaccine going to be? That doesn't mean we should stop working on it, but managing expectations on it could be a little more challenging."
Also see, "Ag Secretary Details New Bird Flu Plan,"
Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com
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