A big winter storm system is moving through the western U.S. on Monday, March 3. The storm will move east through the country over the next couple of days, exiting on Thursday, March 6. Multiple impacts are forecast from the storm including heavy rain that may cause flooding, severe weather across the South, heavy snow from the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest, and strong winds throughout most of the eastern two thirds of the country, resulting in damage and blizzard conditions.

The storm moved into the West this past weekend and dropped some needed precipitation into parts of California and Nevada that have been dealing with drought over a very quiet winter season. It will move out into the Plains Monday night, March 3 and quickly move through the central U.S. on Tuesday, March 4, and the eastern U.S. on Wednesday, March 5. Many of the impacts from the system will end before the system exits the northeast U.S. on Thursday, March 6.

Thunderstorms will erupt in the eastern Plains late Monday night, moving through the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, then through the East Coast on Wednesday. Heavy rain from the thunderstorms will fall on already saturated ground in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, two rivers that have just seen flooding recede. A widespread pool of one inch of rainfall is likely from eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas eastward, with the heaviest rain at the first initiation in the eastern Plains where thunderstorms could make for more than one inch of rain. However, the rain wrapping up around the low-pressure center should target Iowa with the most widespread heavy amounts where amounts of two to three inches are going to be more typical.

Back to the thunderstorms, this dynamic system has all the ingredients for making severe weather. Monday night, storm initiation in the Plains could lead to clusters and line segments capable of producing strong wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes. Northern Texas and Oklahoma are the areas most at risk as outlined from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). For Tuesday, that threat shifts into the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast. Again, clusters and line segments could bring about extreme weather challenges. Strong winds are the most likely threat, but embedded tornadoes are again a large possibility. The SPC is highlighting southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and central Mississippi with the greatest threat, but their slight risk area currently extends from eastern Texas and Oklahoma through southwestern Tennessee and most of Alabama. On Wednesday, those same threats appear most likely from eastern Georgia up through Maryland and Delaware and may come in a couple of waves throughout the day.

On the cold side of the storm, rain developing Monday night in the Central Plains and Upper Midwest will change to snow on Tuesday and Tuesday night, respectively. The intense storm will wrap enough moisture around the low-pressure center to produce a band of snow that could exceed 6 inches from northwestern Kansas and western Nebraska up through northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Snow tends to be patchy across the Plains, but more consistent in the Upper Midwest during the most intense period of the storm going into Wednesday morning.

As the system increases in intensity on Tuesday, winds swirling around the low-pressure center are forecast to increase significantly. With a lot of flat land and little vegetation, winds are forecast to increase into the 50-60 mph range from Nebraska down through much of Texas. Some gusts over 60 mph are going to be felt. With a little more topography and vegetation, areas to the east will generally see winds increasing into the 35-50 mph range, but that includes most areas from southern Minnesota and Wisconsin down to the Gulf and most points east. Winds will diminish from west to east on Wednesday. Widespread wind damage and power outages -- especially in areas with new vegetation or wet soils -- are looking quite likely.

Where these winds coincide with the snow, blizzard conditions are likely from Nebraska up through Wisconsin. Though visibility and duration may not make for exact criteria for a true blizzard in all areas (35 mph winds with visibility less than one-quarter mile for at least three hours while snow is falling), travel hazards are going to be significant in this region and measuring the snowfall will be difficult to conduct accurately.

To find more weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/…

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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